JUNE 2024HR TECH OUTLOOK8In MyOpinionTHE ART AND SCIENCE OF WORKPLACE PLANNING: LESSONS FROM SUPERFORCASTING David Doe, VP, Talent Strategy and Excellence, ShellByThe above quote is taken from Tetlock and Gardner's "Superforecasting: the art of science and prediction". It is a reminder of why, despite the potential benefits, so many organisations struggle to extract value from strategic workforce planning (SWP). We live in a fast-paced world with change accelerating across economical, geopolitical, technological, and societal fronts. Yet the lessons of prior industrial revolutions would indicate that we will continue to be in a tight talent market for some time as the digital revolution and energy transition create more new and different jobs than they destroy. If done well, SWP allows businesses to identify risks and opportunities in transforming their workforce to meet their strategy and an ability to lean into change. So, how can you best get value from SWP in a fast-paced world? Scope In the context of employment models and an increasing need to use "swing" resources to manage peak workload periods, it is important to manage the total workforce (staff and contingent) deliberately and well. There are several implications. · The importance of capturing contingent workers in a single Vendor Management System and the need to leverage a single (preferably AI-enabled) skills taxonomy that integrates with the core Human Capital Management system. · Value and cost should be leading indicators above FTE and headcount. · A close partnership between Finance, HR, and Contracting and Procurement functions is desirable, building capability across all three. Developing a Strategic Plan The strategic element of a workforce plan should align with the business strategy (typically on a 3-to-5-year horizon). Whilst organisations are understandably bringing more data into discussions, the strategic element should be more qualitative than quantitative. It is impossible to predict or forecast the future. How markets evolve is a function of countless variables -- geopolitics, economics, technology, and societal expectations-- each with its inherent uncertainty. The purpose of strategic planning is to analyse the delta between the current and future workforce composition, based on business requirements. The aim is to identify and mitigate risks and maximise opportunities associated with your workforce composition and talent pipeline, with focus on: "In one of history's great ironies, scientists today know more than their colleagues a century ago, and possess vastly more data-crunching power, but are much less confident in the prospects for perfect predictability."David Doe
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